Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 0.439140 0.506403 0.579188 0.663632 0.758730 0.862336 0.983568
2025-06-08 0.341800 0.430012 0.532725 0.660520 0.814564 0.993529 1.216403
2025-06-15 0.284818 0.388685 0.518102 0.689665 0.909386 1.179443 1.534322
2025-06-22 0.219773 0.325937 0.467598 0.667623 0.939432 1.292117 1.779825
2025-06-29 0.173509 0.279410 0.430521 0.657244 0.983110 1.427856 2.072419
2025-07-06 0.136061 0.238056 0.393646 0.641395 1.017273 1.555529 2.370761
2025-07-13 0.114669 0.216869 0.382737 0.661601 1.105791 1.769604 2.814674
2025-07-20 0.093638 0.191779 0.361369 0.662362 1.165301 1.948712 3.228812
2025-07-27 0.078989 0.174655 0.350119 0.677748 1.249953 2.175652 3.740019
2025-08-03 0.067107 0.159987 0.340507 0.694382 1.338863 2.419129 4.302640
2025-08-10 0.052862 0.136907 0.310877 0.670168 1.354169 2.544049 4.687054
2025-08-17 0.040596 0.114648 0.278229 0.634466 1.343508 2.623270 5.002884
2025-08-24 0.032873 0.101076 0.261537 0.629140 1.392159 2.817545 5.547350
2025-08-31 0.026302 0.088285 0.243769 0.618546 1.429481 2.996371 6.084629
2025-09-07 0.022706 0.082396 0.240800 0.639801 1.534443 3.313274 6.905106
2025-09-14 0.017564 0.070055 0.219052 0.614359 1.538282 3.437092 7.379040
2025-09-21 0.013967 0.061066 0.203653 0.600954 1.566181 3.611398 7.966665
2025-09-28 0.010971 0.052758 0.187869 0.583388 1.582037 3.762807 8.523908
2025-10-05 0.009468 0.049301 0.185268 0.599595 1.678689 4.092505 9.467615
2025-10-12 0.007802 0.044374 0.176837 0.598395 1.733397 4.338029 10.260501
2025-10-19 0.006691 0.041278 0.173482 0.610926 1.823993 4.671298 11.265380
2025-10-26 0.005771 0.038581 0.170757 0.624857 1.920184 5.026466 12.346124
2025-11-02 0.004480 0.033198 0.156805 0.601828 1.916279 5.152320 12.940542